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Critics contend that the ratification of “climate credits” regulations on the first day of Cop29 was expedited. Beneath a threatening cloud, the annual UN climate COP conference has commenced in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. Once more, the world’s wealthiest nation will be governed by a leader who is actively opposed to resolving one of the most intractable and existential issues in the world.
Since their inception three decades ago, global initiatives to reduce emissions that contribute to climate change have never been executed with the same efficiency or efficiency as they should have been. However, Donald Trump’s return to the White House occurs at a particularly challenging juncture for a green energy transition that is still in the early stages of development, rather than nearing its conclusion.
2024 is on the brink of surpassing 2023 as the warmest year on record, following an additional period of exceptional weather.Last year, the greenhouse gas emissions that are intended to reduce the heat that countries are supposed to be reducing instead reached a record high, and cities worldwide are being continually battered by weather extremes. The United States, the second-largest emitter after China, cannot afford to be absent.
This time, a Trump administration that is emboldened by the emphatic election vote of last week may inflict more economic damage domestically than internationally, particularly if the Republican party ultimately gains control of both chambers of Congress. China began to surpass the United States in the development of solar modules, batteries, electric vehicles, and other renewable energy technologies during Trump’s inaugural term from 2017 to 2021.
The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, a groundbreaking climate law that directed billions of dollars to green industries, was introduced by the Biden administration in response to Trump’s threats to repeal it. Despite the fact that Republican districts have been the primary beneficiaries of the act’s green generosity, his ability to control Congress may facilitate this. In either case, his threats to terminate clean power projects, such as offshore wind farms “on day one,” while simultaneously increasing fossil fuel production, will introduce uncertainty into green investment plans and stifle aspirations to undermine China’s control over the technologies of the 21st century.
It is accurate that the economic argument for renewable energy sources that are becoming increasingly affordable has become more compelling since Trump’s inaugural term. Currently, the global investment in renewable energy is nearly double that of fossil fuels. However, China is the dominant force in this investment, particularly outside the United States and the European Union. Trump’s actions may encourage other leaders to decrease their efforts in the green energy race, which had already begun to accelerate abroad as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act.
Baku will serve as an initial indicator of the extent to which the election outcome will be felt. Trump’s campaign team has threatened to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Paris Agreement, which he previously announced in 2017 and formally implemented in late 2020. However, Joe Biden restored membership in early 2021.
The United States was not followed by any other country at that time, and there is currently no indication of an exodus. However, Trump advisers anticipate that the prospective president will withdraw the United States from the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is the parent treaty of the Paris Agreement. This action would be more difficult to reverse and would have a significantly more profound impact on international collaboration. It is anticipated that this possibility will undermine a critical objective in Baku, where envoys are scheduled to endorse a new financial objective to assist impoverished nations in adapting to a warmer climate.
Wealthy nations encountered difficulties in adhering to an earlier objective of $100 billion annually, which was formally established in 2010. It is a significant challenge to negotiate a more expansive objective on the eve of a potential US Paris withdrawal. In the end, it is improbable that Trump will terminate the COP process or halt the energy transition. However, the EU and China must be prepared to assist in the vacuum left by the United States. The world cannot afford to further delay a climate transition that is already progressing at a perilously glacial pace.
The implications of Trump’s actions on climate change are vast and far-reaching. The potential withdrawal of the United States from key international agreements poses a severe threat to global efforts to combat climate change. The Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, requires all signatory countries to take coordinated action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Without the participation of the United States, one of the world’s largest emitters, this goal becomes significantly more challenging to achieve.
Furthermore, Trump’s administration has shown a clear disregard for scientific evidence and consensus on climate change. By appointing climate change skeptics and industry insiders to key positions, he has undermined the credibility of climate science and hindered efforts to address the issue effectively. The consequences of this anti-science stance are dire, as they could lead to further delays in implementing necessary policies and measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
On the economic front, Trump’s pro-fossil fuel agenda poses a significant risk to the growth of the renewable energy sector. By promoting the expansion of coal, oil, and gas production, he is hindering the transition to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources. This not only threatens the environment but also jeopardizes the development of new green technologies and the creation of green jobs. In contrast, countries like China have embraced renewable energy and are investing heavily in the sector, positioning themselves as leaders in the green economy of the future.
The international community must remain vigilant in the face of these challenges. By coordinating efforts and maintaining a united front against climate change, countries can overcome the obstacles presented by the Trump administration and continue to make progress towards a more sustainable future. The stakes are high, and the time to act is now. Baku is just the beginning of what promises to be a long and difficult battle for the planet’s future.
