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As we approach the end of this year, many are predicting that 2025 will mark the downfall of Big Tech. Surprisingly, this sentiment is being echoed not only by opposing political parties and mainstream pundits but also by tech giants like Y Combinator. It seems that a united front is forming to defend what is now being referred to as “little tech” against the dominance of the incumbents.
One of the key factors contributing to Big Tech’s impending demise is the floundering AI business on which they heavily invested. Major players like Goldman Sachs and Sequoia Capital are growing increasingly concerned about the billions of dollars required to build and implement large-scale AI systems. They are also worried about the lack of market fit and low returns associated with the AI business model.
The collapse of Big Tech can also be attributed to the negative effects of their economic model. The centralization of power, surveillance, and control of information are all too familiar in the tech landscape. In a real-world scenario, Microsoft’s negligence led to the CrowdStrike outage in mid-2024, resulting in widespread failures across hospitals, banks, and transportation systems on a global scale.
The public and policymakers are now awakening to the dangers of AI’s reliance on and manipulation of sensitive data, especially at a time when privacy is more critical than ever. The recent surge in user growth for privacy-focused apps like Signal serves as a testament to this growing concern. AI often undermines privacy, as demonstrated by Microsoft’s implementation of Recall, a system that records all user activity for the purpose of providing a “perfect memory” of computer interactions. This invasive technology could potentially expose users’ most private moments, leading to justified apprehension.
Fortunately, the same forces that are chipping away at Big Tech’s power are also fueling the rise of innovative alternatives that prioritize democracy, independence, openness, and transparency in the tech sector. A global movement of open-source developers, governance experts, and specialists in political economics within the tech industry is emerging in Europe. These individuals are working together to establish autonomous core tech infrastructure that will challenge the monopolistic tech paradigm.
In addition to grassroots movements, there is a growing chorus of financial backers who are both critiquing and investing in new paradigms that stray away from surveillance, social control, and exploitation. Some investors are exploring groundbreaking concepts that blend traditional venture capital incentives with financial support for nonprofit tech infrastructure. This innovative approach aims to foster an environment of thriving innovation while also mitigating the negative impact of Big Tech’s downfall.
State capital has the potential to further bolster these efforts by providing supplementary support for the development of crucial tech infrastructures. For example, the German Sovereign Tech Fund allocates state resources to key open-source projects, while maintaining an autonomous administration that ensures transparency and accountability.
In essence, the demise of Big Tech in 2025 could serve as a catalyst for the rejuvenation of a healthier tech ecosystem. By creating space for creativity, curiosity, and innovation, we can rebuild a tech environment that prioritizes societal benefit over profit and control. Let us embrace this opportunity to cultivate a future where technology serves the common good and empowers individuals to shape a better world.
